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SECWeek 10Novig prices

Alabama Opens at No. 5 in First CFP Rankings, Eight Spots Ahead of Tennessee, Before LSU Trip

Two-loss Alabama debuts at No. 5 in the first CFP rankings, ahead of Tennessee, and heads to No. 14 LSU as a 5.5-point underdog.

The Southern Line staff
Wednesday, November 4 · 3 min read
Bryant–Denny Stadium
Bryant–Denny Stadium. Photo: DXR, CC BY-SA 4.0

Alabama is 6-2 and comes off a 16-point loss to Tennessee, yet the College Football Playoff selection committee put the Crimson Tide at No. 5 in its first rankings of the season. Alabama is the highest-ranked two-loss team in the committee's Tuesday release. It sits behind only Miami, Georgia, Utah and Indiana and eight places ahead of No. 13 Tennessee, the team that beat it 26-10 last month.

The placement drew pushback right away. HEAVY, in a story also carried by Yahoo Sports, collected reactions from several commentators. CBS Sports' Danny Kanell called it "the worst, most non-sensical" committee yet in a post on X. Barrett Sallee and Clay Travis made similar complaints, and the head-to-head result with Tennessee was the main target.

The committee did explain itself. CBS Sports reported that Yurachek, speaking for the committee, said Alabama and Tennessee had not yet been placed in the same comparison "pod." That means the Vols' win has not been weighed against the Tide so far. CBS also named wins over South Carolina and Kentucky as Alabama's best results to date. The explanation suggests the gap could shrink once the two teams are compared directly, so the No. 5 spot is not secure. A road trip to No. 14 LSU on Saturday will be Alabama's first chance to back it up.

What it means for Saturday in Baton Rouge

On paper this is a matchup of 6-2 teams, but they arrive in different form. Alabama won its last game 31-20 over Texas A&M. Before that it lost back-to-back games to Georgia (20-17) and at Tennessee (26-10), and HEAVY reports the Tide are coming off a bye week. Early in the season the offense was scoring easily, with 45 or more points in four of its first five games. Against Georgia and Tennessee it managed 27 points combined.

LSU has won two straight, 31-0 over Mississippi State and 38-17 at Auburn. Both of its losses came on the road, 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 at Kentucky. The teams have three common opponents. Alabama beat Kentucky 45-17 in Lexington, where LSU lost by one. Both teams handled Mississippi State and Texas A&M easily. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC, an afternoon slot LSU coach Lane Kiffin has publicly questioned, according to HEAVY.

The market favors the home team even though Alabama is ranked higher. LSU is favored by 5.5 points across the 12 venues on our board. HEAVY reported the line has moved toward the Tigers since it opened. Novig lists LSU at -108 on the 5.5. The best price anywhere is theScore Bet's -105, which works out to about $2.66 more profit per $100. On the moneyline, LSU is -203 at Novig and Alabama is +199. Sportsbook hold on those markets ranges from 3.8% to 7.0%.

Novig sets the total at 52.5, at -104 on both sides. The sportsbooks have it between 52 and 53. BetRivers has the over at 52 for -114, and Fanatics has the under at 53 for -110.

If Alabama wins, the committee can point to a road win over a ranked team as support for its No. 5 ranking. If it loses, the Tide will have three losses and will likely fall back toward the group of two-loss SEC teams the committee placed behind them on Tuesday.

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