Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've seen every line move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Kentucky at Oklahoma· Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET
Kentucky +6.5 at plus money is the best price on the board, and I don't pass up plus-money on a ranked 5-1 team getting nearly a touchdown. Oklahoma earned a bump for upsetting Texas, but the market may be paying a premium for one big win. Not a lock, just a number I like.
Alabama at Tennessee· Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ETTennessee +7.5 at even money puts you on the right side of the seven, the most important number in football. The Vols are 5-1 at home and coming off a fourth-quarter rally, and Alabama gets a road trip right after the Georgia game. I'll take the hook at a fair price.
Florida at Texas· Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ETTexas -10.5 at +108 implies about 48 percent, and a plus price on a ranked home favorite against a 4-2 Florida team that just dropped out of the poll is where I see a small edge. My rough estimate is 50 to 51 percent, a gap of two to three points. The narrative about Texas losing to Oklahoma is one game, and I do not reprice a team on a sample of one.
Florida at Texas· Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET
The Quant is laying double digits with a Texas team that just got pushed around by Oklahoma, and the Gators come in unranked with their coach's postgame comments drawing heat. That is exactly the kind of ugly, unloved underdog I want, especially when the headline everyone remembers is Texas, not the number. Ten and a half is a lot of points to hand a 4-2 SEC team that the crowd has already written off.
Missouri at Ole Miss· Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ETMissouri +5.5 at -104 implies roughly 51 percent. I make it closer to 54 percent, because two top-15 teams with one loss each look closer than this number suggests, and 5.5 captures most of the home-field value already. The Heisman Watch headline is noise to me; the price is the argument.
Mississippi State at LSU· Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ETI keep coming back to the rankings: No. 16 Mississippi State at 4-1 is getting 11.5 points from No. 22 LSU, a 4-2 team coming off an overtime loss to Kentucky. The week in Baton Rouge has been about the head coach's comments on the officials rather than the film, and that is not where you want the focus heading into a ranked conference game. I am not saying the Bulldogs win outright, but two touchdowns minus a hook is a lot of cushion in a game this close on paper.
Auburn at Georgia· Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET
No. 1 Georgia is 6-0 and just came through a physical, emotional game against Alabama, and Auburn arrives at 3-2. When a top team is heavily favored, it often plays the second half on the ground with a big lead, and that drains the clock fast. A total of 49.5 asks for a lot of scoring from both sides, and I do not trust Auburn to carry its share.
Arkansas at Vanderbilt· Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ETArkansas is 2-4, a fourth-quarter loss to Tennessee is the freshest memory, and nobody on this desk wants to touch them, which is the whole appeal. Vanderbilt at 3-3 has not earned the right to lay nearly a touchdown against anybody. I will take the ugly Hogs and the points in a night game the public will mostly ignore.
The Southern Line