Auburn odds vs. Mississippi State: Tigers favored by 2.5 with a bowl berth at stake

Auburn is favored by 2.5 points at Mississippi State on Saturday, November 14, at -129 or shorter on the moneyline. The total sits at 50 to 50.5. At 5-4, the Tigers need one more win to become bowl-eligible. With four losses, a College Football Playoff at-large spot is no longer a realistic path, so this game is about reaching the postseason. Kickoff is on ESPN2.

Our Auburn team page is the full guide to the Tigers' season. This story covers what has changed this week and where the numbers stand for Saturday. Live prices from 12 venues are on the Auburn at Mississippi State odds page.

Where the numbers sit

As of Friday, November 13, Auburn is favored by 2.5 across the market. Novig, one of the venues on our board, prices Auburn -2.5 at -113. The best number on the Auburn side is -110 at Hard Rock Bet. Mississippi State +2.5 is +106 on Novig.

On the moneyline, Auburn is favored at -138 on Novig and -129 at BetRivers, the shortest price on the board. At -129, the market puts Auburn's win chance at roughly 56 percent. Mississippi State is +130 on Novig, which works out to about 43 percent. Sportsbook hold on the side markets ranges from 3.1 to 6.7 percent.

The total is 50.5 on Novig, with the over at -106 and the under at +102. Pinnacle has 50, with the over at -114. That lines up closely with Auburn's own season. According to ESPN results, the Tigers have scored 219 points and allowed 237 through nine games. That is about 24.3 points scored and 26.3 allowed per game, a combined 50.6.

How Auburn got to 5-4

Auburn's season has swung from week to week. The Tigers won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia, their best result of the year. In the weeks after that, they lost 38-17 at home to No. 18 LSU and 45-15 at No. 12 Ole Miss. Last Saturday they beat Arkansas 26-23, which stopped the slide and put them one win from a bowl.

Auburn is 3-4 in SEC play. Its conference wins are Georgia, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, and its losses are Florida, Tennessee, LSU and Ole Miss. Outside the league, the Tigers beat Baylor 17-16 and Southern Miss 43-8. Close games have gone both ways: Auburn is 3-1 in games decided by a field goal or less, and the one loss was 44-39 to Florida.

The Tigers are 1-2 in true road games, and the win was the one in Athens. Saturday is their fourth trip away from home.

What the season-total and playoff searches come down to

Auburn has 5 wins with three regular-season games left. The season total can finish anywhere from 5 to 8 wins. A win in Starkville gets to six and settles bowl eligibility before the rest of November. A loss means the Tigers would still need one more win from their last two games to reach a bowl.

The playoff question is mostly settled. A four-loss team that is below .500 in the SEC has no realistic at-large case, and Auburn cannot reach the conference title game from this position.

Legality

Sports wagering is not legal in Alabama. In Mississippi, it is legal only in person at licensed casinos for adults 21 and over, and statewide mobile wagering is not legal. Prediction-market venues such as Novig run under federal rules that some states are challenging. Check the law where you are before using any of these markets.