Doering sees five SEC teams in the CFP as Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky and Texas hit the road

Chris Doering thinks the SEC will put five teams in the College Football Playoff again. On ESPN's SEC This Morning, Doering and co-host Peter Burns used historical data and the Allstate Playoff Predictor to estimate how big the conference's share of the 12-team field will be, and Doering came down on five. That would match last season, when the league got a record five bids.

The selection committee's first rankings, released Tuesday, support his number. The Big Lead reported that Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Ole Miss all sit in the top 10, behind No. 1 Miami, with Georgia at No. 2. Sports Illustrated noted that 10 SEC teams made the committee's top 25 and that eight of them were ranked higher than in the AP poll. Two-loss Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss all landed ahead of Notre Dame and Texas Tech, and that drew complaints from outside the conference.

Right now Doering's five line up with the five teams in the top 10. That group won't stay intact for long, because four of those five play SEC road games Saturday, and two of them play each other.

What Saturday does to the count

The biggest game is No. 2 Georgia (7-1) at No. 10 Ole Miss (6-2) (board). Georgia has won 20-17 at Alabama and 27-8 over Florida, and its only loss came 27-24 against Auburn. Ole Miss beat Auburn 45-15 last week after losing 34-27 at Texas. Georgia is favored by 3.5, and Novig has the Bulldogs at -163 on the moneyline. Ole Miss is +156 on Novig, and the best price anywhere is +158 on Polymarket.

The board leans against two of the other top-10 teams. No. 5 Alabama (6-2) plays at No. 14 LSU (board) after beating Texas A&M 31-20 to stop a two-game losing streak. LSU is favored by 5.5 and is -208 on Novig. The best Alabama spread anywhere is +6.5 at FanDuel. No. 6 Kentucky (7-1) has won seven straight since losing 45-17 to Alabama, and now goes to No. 13 Tennessee (board). Tennessee is favored by 5.5 and is -194 on Novig. Kentucky is +186 there and +200 at Hard Rock Bet, the widest gap on any of the four games.

No. 7 Texas (6-2) plays at No. 18 Missouri (board). The Longhorns are favored by 2.5 and are -130 on Novig's moneyline. Novig has the Texas spread at -111, almost even with theScore Bet's -110. Missouri won 34-10 at Arkansas last week, and its two losses both came on the road.

On all four boards the sportsbook hold runs from about 3% to 7%, so the venues mostly agree and differ only at the margins. Taken together, the prices suggest the SEC could come out of Saturday with fewer teams in the top 10 than it had going in. Losses by Alabama and Kentucky would hand LSU and Tennessee the kind of wins the committee rewards, and SI pointed out that the committee already treats a third loss for an SEC team as survivable. If that holds, the league can still get to Doering's five, though not necessarily with the same five teams.