Novig pricesFlorida Gators odds at Kentucky: Gators +3.5 underdogs as November bowl push begins
Florida (5-4) is a 3.5-point underdog at Kentucky on Nov. 14 and needs one more win in its last three games to become bowl eligible.
Florida is a 3.5-point underdog for Saturday's game at Kentucky. The Wildcats are favored by 3.5 at Novig, and Florida is +153 on the moneyline. Kickoff at Kroger Field is 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Gators are 5-4 and need one more win to become bowl eligible, with three games left.
The Gators' full team page has the season guide. This piece covers what changed in the past three weeks and what the final stretch looks like.
From Austin to a two-game slide
The 27-24 win at Texas on Oct. 17 was the high point of Florida's season. It gave the Gators a ranked road win and three SEC victories, counting the wins over Ole Miss and Auburn. The two games since have gone badly.
Georgia beat Florida 27-8 in Atlanta on Oct. 31. Oklahoma then won 23-7 in Gainesville on Nov. 7. Florida came into that game ranked 24th. Gator Country's postgame review found that Florida finished with 203 yards and no points after halftime. A 20-play Oklahoma drive closed off any chance of a rally. WRUF reported that the Sooners held the ball for 37:50.
That makes 15 points in two games for an offense that scored 52 on Ole Miss in early October.
The rest of November
Florida's official schedule has three games left:
- Nov. 14: at Kentucky, 6:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Nov. 21: vs. Vanderbilt, early kickoff (noon to 1 p.m. window)
- Nov. 27: at Florida State, 3:30 p.m.
Kentucky is 7-2 and ranked, according to ESPN's game page. Florida's athletic department confirmed the night kickoff on Sunday.
What the board says about Saturday
Prices on this site's Florida at Kentucky board come from 12 venues:
- Spread: Kentucky is favored by 3.5 at Novig at even money (-100), with Florida +3.5 at -106. BetRivers lists Florida at +4 (-122), the only place showing the hook moving past 3.5.
- Moneyline: Kentucky is -167 at Novig and -160 at FanDuel. Florida is +153 at Novig and +155 at BetRivers.
- Total: 52.5 at Novig and FanDuel. Hard Rock Bet is the one venue at 53.5.
Sportsbook hold on the spread ranges from 3.3% to 6.7%, so the same price costs noticeably different amounts depending on the venue. Yahoo Sports has a preview with injuries and matchups.
The 52.5 total stands out next to Florida's recent scoring. The Gators haven't topped 19 points since the Texas game.
Bowl and ranking outlook
The math for a bowl is simple. One win in the last three games gets Florida to six. The home game with Vanderbilt and the rivalry trip to Tallahassee are the likelier chances, but a win in Lexington would settle it a week early.
The Oklahoma loss probably took Florida out of the national rankings, and a 3-4 conference record leaves no realistic path to the SEC Championship Game. Anyone searching Florida's SEC title odds will find that market has effectively closed. What's left to play for is bowl placement. A road win over a ranked Kentucky team would be Florida's third ranked win of the season, after Ole Miss and Texas, and could put the Gators back in the poll conversation for the last two weeks.
A loss on Saturday would put the Vanderbilt game in Gainesville on Nov. 21 in charge of whether the Gators get a 13th game.