Kentucky odds vs Florida: Wildcats favored by 2.5 tonight as playoff hopes ride on finish

Kentucky is favored by 2.5 points over Florida tonight at Kroger Field. On Novig, one of the 12 venues on our board, the Wildcats are -141 on the moneyline and Florida is +138. The total sits at 52.5. Kickoff is 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, according to Florida Gators athletics.

Our Kentucky team page is the full guide to the Wildcats' season. This story covers what changed this week: the line, the injury report and where the 34-6 loss at Tennessee leaves Kentucky's playoff case. Live prices for this game are on the Florida at Kentucky odds page.

The number tonight

The market has this game close. At -141, Kentucky's moneyline works out to about a 58 percent chance before the venue's margin is removed. Florida's +138 is about 42 percent. On the spread, Novig lists Kentucky -2.5 at -122 and Florida +2.5 at +117. Some books have the line at a full field goal or more: FanDuel shows Florida +3.5 at -125, so the key number of 3 is in play depending on the venue.

The total ranges from 51.5 to 53.5 across the board, and Novig has it at 52.5 with both sides near even money. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 3.1 to 6.4 percent, which is part of why the same game shows different prices at different venues.

Who is out

Kentucky's final availability report did not change from earlier in the week. A Sea of Blue reports that wide receiver Nic Anderson, cornerbacks Grant Grayton and Jaden Smith, and linebacker Antwan Smith are out. JACK linebacker Kofi Asare is still listed as questionable. Losing Anderson hurts a receiver group that was already short on bodies, and two missing corners leave the secondary thin against a Florida offense that beat Texas 27-24 in October.

Florida comes to Lexington after back-to-back losses: 27-8 to Georgia and 23-7 at Oklahoma, per Yahoo Sports. It has scored 15 points across those two games.

The playoff picture

Two weeks ago, Kentucky held a projected playoff spot. The Wildcats were No. 6 in the committee's first rankings at 7-1 and 5-1 in the SEC, the program's highest ranking of the CFP era, WKYT reported. Then they lost 34-6 at Tennessee, scoring their fewest points of the season. Florida's game notice lists Kentucky as No. 13 this week.

The road wins are still the core of Kentucky's case: at No. 9 Texas A&M, at Oklahoma and 35-34 at South Carolina, plus a 35-34 home win over No. 10 LSU. Their two losses came against ranked teams, Alabama and Tennessee. For a 12-team field, the Wildcats probably cannot lose to a Florida team on a two-game losing streak. With a win tonight, Kentucky would reach eight wins with two regular-season games left. That puts their final win total at eight to 10, depending on how those two games go.

On legality

Sports wagering has been legal in Kentucky since 2023 for adults 18 and older through licensed operators. Novig and other venues are available in some states and not others. Readers outside Kentucky should check what their own state allows. Nothing in this story is a recommendation to take a position.