South Carolina playoff odds: what the 5-3 Gamecocks need after a 3-0 October

South Carolina's playoff odds are long, but the Gamecocks are back in the conversation. Three losses in September and early October left them 2-3. Since then they have won three straight SEC games, and now, at 5-3, they have little room for another loss. Win out and they have a real case for an at-large spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff. Lose again and that case mostly goes away. Saturday's home game against Texas A&M on ESPN starts the stretch, and South Carolina is favored.

For the full season page with the schedule, results and every market we track, see our South Carolina team guide. This story covers what changed in October and what has to happen next.

How October turned the season

October changed how the season looks. South Carolina won 38-19 at No. 16 Florida, beat No. 11 Tennessee 27-24 at home and then won 42-25 at Oklahoma. Two of those three wins came against ranked teams, and two came on the road. Those are the kind of results a selection committee looks at when it compares three-loss teams.

The losses are still there. A 41-34 home loss to Mississippi State opened SEC play. Next came a 49-18 loss at No. 8 Alabama, and then a 35-34 home loss to No. 24 Kentucky. The Mississippi State and Kentucky games were both close home losses, and they are why the margin for error is gone. Results are from ESPN.

That puts South Carolina at 3-3 in the SEC. Unless several teams ahead of them collapse, the Gamecocks are probably too far back for a spot in the SEC Championship Game. Their realistic route to the playoff is as an at-large team.

What the Gamecocks need

A 12-game schedule leaves four regular-season games, starting with Texas A&M. At 9-3, with wins at Florida and Oklahoma and over Tennessee, South Carolina would have a strong argument. Three-loss SEC teams have been considered for at-large spots under the expanded format, but no team should count on one. The committee will also weigh how Alabama, Tennessee, Florida and Oklahoma finish, because those games help or hurt South Carolina's strength of schedule.

At 8-4, the Gamecocks would probably be looking at a bowl, not the playoff. A fifth loss would end the playoff discussion.

Saturday's prices: Texas A&M at South Carolina

South Carolina is favored by 6.5 points over Texas A&M across most of the market. On Novig, one of 12 venues on our board, the Gamecocks are -117 at -6.5, and Texas A&M is +111 at +6.5. Hard Rock Bet has the Aggies at +7.5 at -120. On the moneyline, Novig lists South Carolina at -245 and Texas A&M at +239. That puts the Gamecocks' chance of winning a little above 70 percent.

The total is 51.5. Novig has the over at +104 and the under at -113. FanDuel has the under at -110, and Pinnacle has the over at 51 at -108. Sportsbook hold on these markets runs from about 3.4 to 6.8 percent. The full board, which refreshes about every ten minutes, is on the Texas A&M at South Carolina odds page.

On legality: sports wagering is not legal in South Carolina. Where it is legal, it is limited to adults who meet the state's minimum age, which is 21 in most states. These prices are listed here as information only.

The bottom line

The October wins gave South Carolina a chance, but they don't guarantee anything. Any realistic playoff scenario starts with beating Texas A&M on Saturday.