Tennessee's playoff path runs through a perfect November, which Heupel has never had at UT

Tennessee's path to the College Football Playoff now asks for one thing Josh Heupel has never done in Knoxville: win every game in November. The first CFP rankings put the Vols at No. 13, the second team outside the projected 12-team bracket. As Knoxville News Sentinel beat writer Adam Sparks laid out, the realistic target is 10-2.

That means beating No. 6 Kentucky at home Saturday, winning at Texas A&M on Nov. 14, taking care of No. 15 LSU at Neyland Stadium on Nov. 21 and closing at Vanderbilt on Nov. 28. ESPN's playoff predictor puts Tennessee's chances at nearly certain if it gets to 10-2, according to the report, which The Tennessean also carried. A loss to Kentucky and a 9-3 finish drops that figure to 32%.

November has been Heupel's weakest regular-season month at Tennessee. He is 13-8 in November, compared with 19-5 in September and 15-6 in October. His only perfect November as a head coach came at UCF in 2018, when the Knights went 4-0 in the month on the way to 12-1. Johnny Majors and Phillip Fulmer built their reputations on unbeaten Novembers, but the News Sentinel noted they seldom had to beat more than one ranked team in that month to do it. This Tennessee team has to beat two. Heupel said he is keeping the focus narrow: "We've got one opponent this week. It's Kentucky."

What it means for Kentucky

Kentucky arrives in a role it rarely plays in this rivalry. The Wildcats are 7-1 and 5-1 in the SEC, and their six-game winning streak is the longest in the conference. Kickoff is 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Tennessee is 6-2 and 3-2 in league play, and both losses were by three points: 20-17 to No. 1 Texas and 27-24 at South Carolina last week. The South Carolina loss ended a three-game run that included a 26-10 win over Alabama, then ranked sixth. In SEC games the Vols have averaged 23 points and allowed 17.6, well below the 32.3 points a game they are scoring overall. Four of their five conference games finished with fewer than 42 combined points.

The venues still have Tennessee clearly favored. Novig lists the Vols at -212 on the moneyline and -6.5 at -111 on the spread. The best spread price on this site's board is theScore Bet at -110 for the same number. Kentucky is +203 at Novig and +205 at bet365, the best price available, and BetRivers is the one book showing the Wildcats at +7. Across 12 venues the spread between prices is narrow, about two cents on the Kentucky moneyline and one cent on the Tennessee spread, with sportsbook hold running from 3.9% to 5.9% on the moneyline. Novig sets the total at 50.5. Only one of Tennessee's SEC games has gone over that number, the 51-point loss in Columbia.

Heupel's first November win at Tennessee came against a ranked Kentucky team in 2021. To keep the playoff within reach, he needs another one on Saturday.