Brian Kelly picks Ole Miss to beat No. 2 Georgia again, citing last season's Sugar Bowl

Brian Kelly is picking Ole Miss to beat Georgia on Saturday. The former LSU head coach, now commenting from outside the sport, says the Rebels have nothing left to prove against the Bulldogs, according to ClutchPoints.

His case rests on last season's College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl, where Ole Miss won 39-34. Trinidad Chambliss completed 30 of 46 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions that night. Kewan Lacy ran for 98 yards and two scores on 22 carries, Harrison Wallace III caught nine passes for 156 yards and a touchdown, and Lucas Carneiro made a 47-yard field goal with six seconds left to win it. Ole Miss finished with 473 total yards. Gunner Stockton passed for 203 yards and a touchdown and ran for two more scores in the loss.

Kelly's view, as ClutchPoints relays it, is that the mental barrier is gone: the Rebels have already solved Kirby Smart's defense once and have the offense and the big-game experience to do it again. He also admits that picking against Georgia is always a risk. Neither program has said anything publicly in response.

What it means for Saturday

The teams have reached November in different shape. Georgia is 7-1 and ranked No. 2. It won 20-17 at Alabama and beat No. 17 Florida 27-8 last week, but it also lost 27-24 to Auburn, and that loss still shapes how people see the Bulldogs. Ole Miss is 6-2 and ranked No. 10, with a 32-24 win over LSU and a 31-3 win over Missouri. Both of its losses came on the road: 52-28 at Florida and 34-27 at Texas.

The opponents the two teams share muddy the picture. Ole Miss beat Auburn 45-15 last week, the same Auburn team that beat Georgia. The Rebels gave up 52 in Gainesville to a Florida team that Georgia held to eight points. Each beat Vanderbilt comfortably. In Oxford, Ole Miss is unbeaten this season, and Georgia has been tested more often away from home than its record suggests.

The board on this site's game page has Georgia favored across 12 venues. Novig lists the Bulldogs at -3.5 (-106) on the spread and -163 on the moneyline, with Ole Miss at +156 to win outright. The best number for the Rebels anywhere is +4 at BetRivers (-114). Novig's is +3.5 at -102, so the venues are half a point apart at most on the spread. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.6% to 6.5% on the moneyline and up to 7.0% on the spread. Novig has the total at 56.5, a high number for a Georgia team that has held three of its last four opponents to 17 points or fewer.

The market expects a close game decided by a field goal or so, much like January's. Kelly is going with the team that won that one. Kickoff is Saturday on ABC.