Novig pricesMissouri's Ahmad Hardy set to make season debut Saturday at Arkansas
Missouri All-American tailback Ahmad Hardy is expected to play his first game of 2026 at Arkansas, months after he was shot in May.
Ahmad Hardy is expected to play in a game for Missouri on Saturday night, his first appearance since he was shot in May. Sources told ESPN that the All-American tailback will make his season debut at Arkansas. He will not start, but he should get a handful of carries. The Columbia Daily Tribune confirmed the plan through its own source, and FOX Sports also reported it.
Hardy was shot in the leg at a concert in his home state of Mississippi on May 10, Yahoo Sports reported, and he missed the Tigers' first seven games. He went back to practice this week as a full participant. On Wednesday he was left off the SEC availability report for the first time this season. Coach Eli Drinkwitz has been careful in public, saying in a social media post that "our medical staff will determine his return to game action," according to Field Level Media. Drinkwitz has also pointed out that no one has a blueprint for a player coming back from gunshot injuries.
Even in a small role, Hardy's return changes the back half of Missouri's schedule. Last season he led the SEC with 1,649 rushing yards, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and scoring 16 touchdowns. He was a consensus All-American, a first-team All-SEC pick and a Doak Walker Award finalist. Jamal Roberts, his backup in 2025, has carried the load without him and leads the SEC at 124 rushing yards per game, according to ESPN. Roberts stays the starter. The Tigers now have two proven backs heading into a run of Texas, Georgia on the road and Kentucky after this weekend.
What it means for Saturday in Fayetteville
No. 23 Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC) is coming off its worst game of the season, a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss. Before that the Tigers had beaten Texas A&M 27-6 and Florida 45-17. Over seven games they have scored 31.1 points per game and allowed 19.6. Arkansas (3-4, 1-3) won 31-21 at Vanderbilt last week but has struggled against good teams. The Razorbacks lost 45-17 to Georgia, 43-10 at Utah and 34-7 at Texas A&M, and they are allowing 26.7 points per game while scoring 21.0.
The board for the game has Missouri clearly favored across 11 venues. On Novig, Missouri is -335 to win outright and Arkansas is +326. On the spread, Novig lists Missouri -10.5 at +106. The best Missouri price anywhere is FanDuel's -9.5 at -114, so the venues are a point apart on the line. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 3.4% to 6.7%.
The total is 48.5 on Novig, with the over at +102 and the under at -106. Elsewhere the number ranges from FanDuel's 47.5 (over at -110) to Hard Rock Bet's 49.5 (under at -115). That 48.5 sits well below Missouri's season scoring pace combined with Arkansas's. A few carries from Hardy probably won't move those numbers much. The bigger question is whether he looks like himself after five months away, ahead of a November run that will decide Missouri's season.