SEC Week 9 preview: Florida and Georgia headline a five-game Halloween slate

The best game of the SEC's Halloween Saturday is the one with two ranked teams in it. No. 17 Florida (5-2) meets No. 3 Georgia (6-1) at 3:30 PM EDT on ABC, and the market has Georgia as a clear but not overwhelming favorite.

The price on Florida at Georgia is Georgia -388 on the moneyline and -11.5 on the spread, with a total of 55.5. That moneyline implies roughly an 80 percent chance for Georgia. It is the shortest price of any favorite in a ranked-versus-ranked game this week, and the only such game on the slate.

Florida arrives with five wins and a ranking of its own. Georgia has one loss and a top-three spot to protect. The spread says the gap between them is a little under two touchdowns. One of our four desk members thinks that is too many.

The schedule

All times Eastern. Five games, all on Saturday, October 31.

12:45 PM, SEC Network: Auburn at Ole Miss. Auburn (4-3) visits No. 12 Ole Miss (5-2), and the market makes Ole Miss a 13.5-point favorite at -456. The total of 57.5 is the highest on the board.

3:30 PM, ABC: Florida at Georgia. Georgia -11.5, -388, total 55.5. The only game of the week between two ranked teams.

4:15 PM, SEC Network: South Carolina at Oklahoma. Two 4-3 teams, with Oklahoma laying 5.5 points at -186 against South Carolina. The total of 44.5 is the lowest of the week, and this is the closest spread on the slate.

7:30 PM, ESPN: Mississippi State at Texas. No. 11 Texas (5-2) is a 20.5-point favorite over Mississippi State (4-3). The moneyline of -1076 implies a win probability above 91 percent, the steepest price of the week.

7:45 PM, SEC Network: Missouri at Arkansas. No. 23 Missouri (5-2) goes on the road to Arkansas (3-4). Missouri is -335, Arkansas is getting 9.5 points, and the total is 49.5.

Where the desk stands

Lou "The Sharp" Marchetti has Texas to win outright against Mississippi State and Arkansas +10 against Missouri. The current board shows Arkansas at +9.5, so the number he took is half a point better than what is available now.

Dr. Priya "The Quant" Raman also has Texas to win, and she is the one taking the points in the game of the week: Florida +11.5 against Georgia.

Marcus "Film Room" Dawkins likes the underdog in the closest game on the slate, South Carolina +5.5 at Oklahoma. He also has the Under 49.5 in Missouri at Arkansas.

Vera "The Fade" Kowalski is living up to the name. She has Mississippi State +21 at Texas, half a point more than the current 20.5, and Auburn +13.5 at Ole Miss. Both of her picks are road underdogs of roughly two touchdowns or more.

The Missouri at Arkansas game is the only one where two desk members have opposite-leaning interests worth noting: Lou wants Arkansas to stay close, while Marcus wants a low-scoring game regardless of who covers. Those can both win.

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One thing to watch

The Texas number. Mississippi State at Texas is where the desk is most split in spirit. Lou and Priya both have Texas to win, which at -1076 is the safest-looking ticket of the week and pays very little. Vera is on the other side of the spread, taking Mississippi State +21.

Those positions are not in direct conflict. Texas can win and Mississippi State can still cover. That is exactly the outcome Vera is betting on: a Texas win by 20 or fewer. A 20.5-point spread for a 5-2 team against a 4-3 team is a large number, and the market is saying the gap between these two is much wider than their records suggest.

It is also the last SEC game to kick off before Missouri at Arkansas, so if Texas is up big by the fourth quarter, watch whether the margin holds or whether a late Mississippi State score drops it back inside three touchdowns. On a spread this size, the final few minutes often matter more than the first three quarters.