Oklahoma's 27-year bowl streak hangs on a thin margin, ESPN's FPI projects

Oklahoma has made 27 straight bowl trips, a run that goes back to 1999. ESPN's Football Power Index now projects the Sooners to finish 6-6, which is the exact number needed to keep it going. At 4-3 with five games left, Oklahoma has to win two of them. As Roundtable Sports points out, only Georgia has a longer active bowl streak, and this one has outlasted coaching changes and a move to a new conference.

The model's numbers for each remaining game show why it isn't more optimistic. Oklahoma is a 63.8 percent pick at home against South Carolina and a 58.4 percent pick at home against Texas A&M. After that it drops: 49.1 percent at Missouri, 42.5 percent at home against Ole Miss and 40.1 percent at No. 17 Florida. That adds up to one likely win, one lean and three games that could go either way or worse. Roundtable's Tyler Jones calls the projection a challenge as much as a forecast. In his words, it is saying "the margin for error is thin."

The Sooners' results so far match that. They beat No. 1 Texas 27-24, then lost 21-13 at home to No. 15 Kentucky a few weeks later. They lost 41-13 at No. 2 Georgia and 17-10 at Michigan. Last week's 23-15 win at Mississippi State steadied things after the Kentucky loss. Quarterback John Mateer has thrown for 1,591 yards and 11 touchdowns with a 53.0 QBR, according to ESPN. Roundtable's analysis keeps coming back to the same point: how Oklahoma finishes depends on whether Mateer avoids turnovers.

What it means for South Carolina

South Carolina comes to Norman on Saturday, October 31, for an SEC Network game. Both teams are 4-3. ESPN's standings have Oklahoma at 2-2 in conference play and the Gamecocks at 2-3. Since the Sooners joined the SEC, the series is 1-1. On the FPI's path to 6-6, this is the game Oklahoma is expected to win. A loss would leave the Sooners needing to win two of four games in which the model favors them just once.

Offense has been the problem. Oklahoma has scored 14 points or fewer in four of its seven games. Only the 51-0 opener against UTEP topped 27. The defense has kept games close and held Mississippi State, New Mexico and Texas to 24 points or fewer.

All 11 venues on this site's board have Oklahoma favored. On Novig, the Sooners are -156 on the moneyline and South Carolina is +150. That works out to roughly a 61 percent chance for Oklahoma, a little below the FPI's 63.8. Novig has Oklahoma favored by 3.5 points, priced at +102, with South Carolina +3.5 at -106. Novig sets the total at 44.5, at +102 on the over and -106 on the under. Pinnacle's over at 44 and -110 is the best over price anywhere. Sportsbook hold ranges from 3.1 to 6.3 percent on the moneyline and runs as high as 7.0 percent on the total, so the venues are fairly close on this game.

A total in the mid-40s fits how Oklahoma has played this year: a strong defense and an offense that has struggled to score. If the Sooners win Saturday, they need one more win from the last four games to extend the streak.