Ole Miss on Week 9 Upset Alert vs Auburn Without Lacy

Ole Miss enters Saturday's home game against Auburn as a double-digit favorite. It will play without its best running back, and some national writers think the spot is a dangerous one. College Football News put the Rebels at No. 5 on its Week 9 upset-alert list. The outlet pointed to three things: Kewan Lacy is out, the Rebels are coming off a close loss at Texas, and Georgia visits Oxford next week. That leaves Auburn as the game in between. The Tigers have little to lose, and College Football News noted they already beat Georgia this month.

The Lacy news is settled. Coach Pete Golding said Monday that Lacy dislocated his shoulder in the third quarter of the 34-27 loss in Austin, according to the Clarion Ledger and On3. Golding also left no doubt about this week, telling the Associated Press "there's no chance that we're going to try that at all this week." He said the staff will decide on Lacy's status for the rest of the season later.

The Clarion Ledger reported that Makhi Frazier, a junior who transferred from Michigan State, took most of the carries after Lacy left the Texas game. He is the likely lead back against Auburn. Wednesday's injury report, as relayed by The Rebel Walk, lists Lacy and safety Edwin Joseph as out. Left tackle Terez Davis and cornerback Jalyn Crawford are questionable. Getting Davis back would help an offense that now has to win without its top rusher.

What it means for Saturday

Ole Miss is 5-2 and has been far better at home. The Rebels are 4-0 in Oxford, where they beat Louisville 41-38, Charlotte 41-9, No. 7 LSU 32-24 and No. 13 Missouri 31-3. Both losses came on the road: 52-28 at Florida and 34-27 at Texas. Across seven games the offense has averaged 36 points and the defense has allowed about 25.3. The losses at Florida and Texas show the defense can give up big numbers to good teams.

The board for Auburn at Ole Miss covers 11 venues, and all of them make the Rebels comfortable favorites. Novig has Ole Miss favored by 12.5 at -111 and -441 on the moneyline, with Auburn at +426. Hard Rock Bet has the same 12.5 at -110, the best price on the Ole Miss side. The most room for Auburn is at Fanatics, which has the Tigers at +13.5 for -110. College Football News listed the game at 13.5 earlier in the week, so the line has moved about a point across venues. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 3.6% to 6.7%.

The total is 57.5 on Novig and as low as 56.5 at FanDuel. That is a little under the 61-point average for Ole Miss games this season, and the gap makes sense with Lacy out. Kickoff is set for 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network. The prices still make Ole Miss a clear favorite. The upset case depends on whether Frazier and the offense can handle the load before Georgia arrives next week.