Tennessee football odds: Vols favored by 2.5 at Texas A&M as November playoff push begins

Tennessee is favored by 2.5 points at Texas A&M on Saturday, Nov. 14, on ESPN. The total sits at 42.5. On the moneyline, the Volunteers are favored at -133 on Novig and -130 at BetMGM, the shortest price across the 12 venues on this site's board for the game. A -130 price works out to about a 56.5 percent chance of a Tennessee win. Texas A&M is +125 on Novig.

The Vols are 7-2 going into the trip to College Station. Our Tennessee team page is the full guide to the season. This story covers what has changed this week and what the numbers say about the November stretch.

Where the line stands

The spread has held at Tennessee -2.5 at most venues. Novig has the Vols at -115 at that number, while BetMGM has them at -108. Hard Rock Bet has a different number for the Aggies, +3.5 at -130, which means some books are pricing the game closer to a field goal. The over and under are both -108 at 42.5 on Novig, and Hard Rock Bet has the under at 43.5. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 3.8 to 7.0 percent depending on the venue.

That total says a lot about this Tennessee team. The Vols scored 56, 45 and 42 against Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State, but SEC play has been slower. Their last six games all ended between 17 and 34 points for Tennessee. Seven or fewer points decided four of those six.

The résumé after Alabama and Kentucky

Tennessee's playoff case is built on two home wins over teams ranked sixth at kickoff. The Vols beat No. 6 Alabama 26-10 and then held No. 6 Kentucky to two field goals in a 34-6 win last Saturday. Over those two games, Tennessee gave up 16 points combined to top-10 opponents.

The two losses were by a field goal each: 20-17 at home to No. 1 Texas and 27-24 at South Carolina. The Texas loss will not hurt much with a selection committee. The South Carolina loss is the one the Vols have to make up for. It came one week after the Alabama win and cost Tennessee some ground in the SEC standings.

The Auburn win (24-14) and the road win at Arkansas (24-17) were close but steady. Tennessee has not lost a game by more than three points all season. The committee does not count that directly, but it is a sign the Vols are not far from Texas and the rest of the top tier.

What November asks

With a 12-team playoff field, a two-loss SEC team with wins over two top-10 opponents is in the at-large discussion. A third loss would make that much harder. That makes College Station the biggest remaining game. The markets see it as close to a toss-up, with a slight lean to the Vols. A win would give Tennessee an eighth victory and a second straight road win over an SEC West program from the old divisional map.

The SEC Championship Game route depends on more than Tennessee's results. With losses to Texas and South Carolina, the Vols need help in the conference standings. Their best path is to win out and let tiebreakers settle it.

Legal note

Tennessee allows online sports wagering only through state-licensed operators, and only for adults 21 and over. There are no retail sportsbooks in the state. Sports wagering is not legal in Texas. The prices above are listed for information. Venue availability differs by state, and readers should follow the law where they live.

Season results are from ESPN.