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SECWeek 9Novig prices

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian says SEC's nine-game slate is costing the league in the CFP race

Steve Sarkisian says the SEC's ninth conference game adds injuries and eight more league losses as Texas, 5-2, hosts Mississippi State.

The Southern Line staff
Friday, October 30 · 2 min read
Ole Miss
Texas

Texas just beat No. 7 Ole Miss, and Steve Sarkisian used the week after to criticize the conference schedule his team is still working through. At his Thursday media session, the Longhorns coach said the SEC's 16 head coaches all had doubts about moving to nine league games this season. He gave two reasons, as ClutchPoints reported: the physical toll and the effect on the playoff picture.

On the first point, Sarkisian said one more SEC game means one more week of heavy contact, and he wants teams healthy if they make the playoff. He backed that up with his own injury list. On3 reported that he named offensive lineman Trevor Goosby, edge rusher Colin Simmons, running back Hollywood Smothers, who missed last week, and receiver Cam Coleman, who sat out the second half against Ole Miss. He also pointed out that Mississippi State has lost its quarterback for the rest of the season.

The second point is about math. The extra game adds eight more conference losses across the league, a figure Sarkisian kept coming back to. "Any way you slice it, it's eight more losses," he said, according to KXAN. Every SEC team had a conference loss by the halfway point of league play. He questioned how the selection committee will compare a 9-3 SEC team with 10-2 or 11-1 teams from other conferences. In his view, the league should have waited for a bigger playoff before adding the ninth game.

Texas is a good example of his point. The Longhorns are 5-2, and both losses came by three points in conference play, 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 to Florida. That leaves them 2-2 in the SEC, with wins at Tennessee and over Ole Miss. Their nonconference résumé includes a 24-23 win over then-No. 1 Ohio State, a home-and-home series Texas kept even after the schedule grew. After losing two league games, Texas probably has little margin left in the SEC title race or the playoff race.

What it means for Mississippi State

The Longhorns host Mississippi State on Saturday on ESPN. The roster questions Sarkisian raised will matter here. ClutchPoints also reported that Simmons was downgraded for this game. Even so, the bigger problem belongs to the visitors, who will start a backup quarterback.

The board for the game has Texas as a heavy favorite across 12 venues. Novig lists the Longhorns at -20.5 on the spread and -1011 on the moneyline, with Mississippi State at +953. The venues are about a point apart on the spread. theScore Bet has the best Texas number at -19.5, though it costs -115. Sportsbook hold runs from 2.8% to 5.1% on the moneyline and 3.4% to 6.7% on the spread. The total sits at 50.5 on Novig, and Fanatics posts 51.

Texas has won by more than three touchdowns only twice this season, against Texas State and UTSA. Its last five games were decided by a combined 17 points. Ole Miss, the team Texas just beat, hosts Auburn the same day and is favored by 11.5 on Novig. For Texas, a lopsided win would go a long way, partly because Sarkisian doubts the committee will give much credit for SEC losses.

Original reporting
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