Texas Holds a 57.9% Playoff Chance in ESPN's FPI Before the First CFP Rankings

A week after beating Ole Miss, Texas is back in a good spot in the playoff race, though not a safe one. As Texas Longhorns On SI reports, ESPN's Football Power Index gives the 5-2 Longhorns a 57.9 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. That is the eighth-best figure in the FBS and ahead of LSU, Kentucky, UCLA, Ole Miss and Tennessee. The committee releases its first rankings on Tuesday.

The same model is much less generous about a clean finish. It gives Texas a 14.9 percent chance to win out, and that is the route that would make a bid close to certain. SI's Zach Dimmitt points to a recent On3 projection that puts Texas at the No. 11 seed with a first-round trip to No. 6 Utah. He also argues that in a crowded SEC, a 9-3 Texas could still win an at-large spot on the strength of wins over Ohio State, Tennessee and Ole Miss. That case only works if other bubble teams, including BYU, Tennessee and LSU, also finish with three losses.

That is the key point. Texas lost back-to-back three-point games to Oklahoma and Florida in October, and those losses used up most of its margin. Its four wins over ranked or major opponents, including a 24-23 win over Ohio State when the Buckeyes were No. 1, carry a lot of weight. But November includes road games at Missouri and LSU, so there is little room left.

What it means for Mississippi State

Saturday's home game against Mississippi State (6:30 p.m., ESPN) is the softest stop left on the schedule. The Austin American-Statesman reports that the Bulldogs (4-3, 2-3 SEC) won their first four games and have lost three straight since. They will also be without quarterback Kamario Taylor, who needs surgery on a toe injury. That puts more of the offense on running back Fluff Bothwell, who has 514 yards on 91 carries, against a Texas run defense allowing 106 yards per game in league play. The Bulldogs have 10 turnovers and have allowed 20 sacks. Texas will likely be without edge rusher Colin Simmons (ankle) for a second straight game.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian expects a complicated defensive plan from coordinator Zach Arnett. Sarkisian told On Texas Football that Arnett's defense will "pose a ton of threats with the multitude of defenses that they throw at you."

The market makes Texas a heavy favorite. Across the 12 venues on this site's board, Texas is favored by 20.5 points, and Novig prices that line at -102. The best price elsewhere is BetMGM at -110 on Texas -20, a half point shorter. On the moneyline, Novig has Texas at -1076 and Mississippi State at +1011. Kalshi's listing of Texas at +218 is far out of line with every other venue and should be read with caution. The total is 50.5 at Novig. BetRivers offers the best under price, -115 at 51. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.3 to 6.8 percent across the markets.

A comfortable win would not raise Texas much in the committee's view. A loss would likely end its playoff hopes, and the FPI numbers reflect how little room it has left.