Auburn's upset of No. 1 Georgia opens a playoff path, and LSU is the first test

Auburn left Athens with a 27-24 win over No. 1 Georgia, and now the Tigers have something they have not had in years: a real path to the College Football Playoff. A week ago that would have sounded far-fetched. Auburn had just lost 24-14 at Tennessee, and Gunner Norene of Auburn Tigers On SI notes that Alex Golesh's team went into Georgia as a 20.5-point underdog, with ESPN giving it a 9.5% chance to win.

The Tigers won it the hard way. ESPN reported that quarterback Byrum Brown carried the offense on the ground, and that Gunner Stockton's fumble with 58 seconds left set up the winning field goal. CBS Sports reported that Auburn wiped out a 14-0 deficit with 24 straight points, that Alex McPherson kicked the winner as time expired, and that it was the program's first win over a ranked opponent since 2021. Auburn did it without linebacker Xavier Atkins, its top defender, who was suspended for the game and has since been dismissed from the program.

Norene lays out the route from here. Beat LSU and Auburn likely moves into the AP Top 25. A trip to No. 7 Ole Miss follows, then Arkansas at home, Mississippi State on the road and Samford before the Iron Bowl. Even with a loss in Oxford, an 8-3 Auburn could play Alabama with a playoff spot at stake, and in a deep SEC a three-loss team getting in is not out of the question. A loss to LSU, at 4-3, would end that talk.

What it means against LSU

The numbers explain why the Georgia win has not convinced everyone yet. Auburn is 4-2, has scored 161 points and allowed 131, and three of its four wins came by six points or fewer, including a 17-16 opener against Baylor and a 21-15 game against Vanderbilt. It also gave up 44 points at home to Florida. LSU arrives at 5-2, averaging just over 40 points a game and allowing fewer than 16. Lane Kiffin's team just shut out No. 16 Mississippi State 31-0 and beat No. 23 Texas A&M 35-6 earlier. Both of its losses came on the road, by one point at Kentucky and by eight at No. 8 Ole Miss.

The board has not bought the upset yet. LSU is favored at -257 on the moneyline at Novig, with Auburn at +251. Novig lists LSU at -7.5 for +106 and Auburn at +7.5 for -113. The best Auburn number anywhere is BetRivers at +8 for -124, so the venues are only half a point apart on the spread. The total is 51.5 at Novig, while Hard Rock Bet has the best over at 50.5 and theScore Bet matches 51.5 on the under at -110. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.7% to 6.7% across the 12 venues.

Kickoff is Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium on ABC. A one-score Auburn team that beat Georgia on turnovers and line-of-scrimmage play gets a week to show the result was no fluke, against an opponent that has scored more than 30 points in five of its seven games.