The Southern Line
Novig pricesSEC Week 8 preview: Ole Miss gets points at Texas, and the market keeps doubting records
No. 7 Ole Miss is a 3.5-point underdog at No. 19 Texas, and records and rankings don't line up with the odds in three SEC games this week.
The best game on the Week 8 board is also the one where the rankings and the price disagree most plainly. No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1) goes to No. 19 Texas (4-2) on Saturday night, and the market has the home team favored.
Texas is -3.5 and -150 to win outright in Ole Miss at Texas. That moneyline works out to roughly a 60 percent chance for the Longhorns. Ole Miss has one loss and the higher ranking. Texas has home field and, in the market's view, enough beyond that to cover a field goal.
The total of 53.5 is the highest on the slate. Whoever gets the last possession may decide it.
The schedule
All times Eastern, Saturday, October 24.
12:00 PM, ABC: No. 18 LSU (5-2) at Auburn (4-2). LSU is -270 and laying 7.5 in LSU at Auburn, with a total of 51.5. The desk is split on this one, and the spread is the reason.
3:30 PM, ESPN: No. 11 Tennessee (6-1) at South Carolina (3-3). A one-loss ranked team is getting 2.5 points from a .500 team in Tennessee at South Carolina. South Carolina is -122, and the total is 50.5.
3:30 PM, ABC: Texas A&M (4-3) at No. 13 Alabama (5-2). Alabama is -525 and -13.5 in Texas A&M at Alabama, the largest favorite of the week. The total sits at 50.5.
3:30 PM, SEC Network: Oklahoma (3-3) at Mississippi State (4-2). Oklahoma has the worse record and is still -178 on the road in Oklahoma at Mississippi State, with Mississippi State getting 4.5. The 44.5 total is the lowest on the board.
7:30 PM, ABC: No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1) at No. 19 Texas (4-2). Texas -3.5, -150, total 53.5. The game of the week, covered above.
7:30 PM, SEC Network: Vanderbilt (3-4) at No. 12 Kentucky (6-1). Kentucky is -426 and -10.5 in Vanderbilt at Kentucky, total 51.5. Two desk members took opposite sides of that number.
Where the desk stands
Four games drew picks, and three of them split the desk.
Lou "The Sharp" Marchetti has Ole Miss +3.5 at Texas and Auburn +9 against LSU. He is the only one on the game of the week, and he is taking the points with the higher-ranked team. Note that his Auburn number is better than the current 7.5.
Dr. Priya "The Quant" Raman has Tennessee to win outright at South Carolina and Texas A&M +15.5 at Alabama. The Tennessee pick is a straight bet against the price. The A&M ticket was taken at 15.5; the line now sits at 13.5.
Marcus "Film Room" Dawkins has LSU -7.5 at Auburn and Kentucky -10.5 against Vanderbilt. He is laying the number in both games, which puts him directly against Marchetti on LSU and against Kowalski on Kentucky.
Vera "The Fade" Kowalski has South Carolina -2 against Tennessee and Vanderbilt +10.5 at Kentucky. She is with the market on the Gamecocks and against the ranked favorite in Lexington.
The matchups inside the desk are cleaner than usual. Marchetti and Dawkins disagree on LSU-Auburn. Raman and Kowalski disagree on Tennessee-South Carolina. Dawkins and Kowalski disagree on Vanderbilt-Kentucky. Only Alabama and Ole Miss-Texas have a single voice.
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One thing to watch
In three games this week, the team with the worse record or lower ranking is favored: Texas over Ole Miss, South Carolina over Tennessee, and Oklahoma over Mississippi State.
The Tennessee game is the sharpest test. The Volunteers are 6-1 and ranked 11th. South Carolina is 3-3 and unranked. The market still makes the Gamecocks a 2.5-point favorite at -122, roughly a 55 percent chance to win. Home field alone usually accounts for most of that gap, which means the market is rating these teams closer than their records suggest.
Raman and Kowalski have both staked out positions here, one on each side. If Tennessee wins outright, a 6-1 record looks like what it is. If South Carolina covers, the market's read on both teams gets stronger heading into November.
Watch the 3:30 window. With three games kicking off together, the Tennessee result will be the first sign of whether the records or the prices were right this week.