Georgia at Ole Miss: ESPN FPI gives Bulldogs 55.5% edge

ESPN's matchup predictor gives Georgia only a slight edge for Saturday night's trip to Oxford. As UGA Wire reported, the model gives the Bulldogs a 55.5% chance to beat Ole Miss and the Rebels 44.5%. That makes this the game ESPN thinks Georgia is most likely to lose this season. 247Sports had the same FPI number alongside an opening line that made Georgia a 3.5-point road favorite.

The number reflects how the series has gone lately. Ole Miss ended Georgia's season in last year's College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl, winning 39-34 as Trinidad Chambliss threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns, according to DawgNation. The outlet also reported that Ole Miss has won 16 straight home games, the longest active streak among power-conference teams. Kirby Smart is 0-2 as Georgia's coach at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, and the most recent of those losses was a 28-10 defeat in 2024 that ended with fans on the field.

Smart had plenty of praise for the Rebels' quarterback this week. "He (Chambliss) is extremely hard to defend and a great player," Smart said, as quoted by UGA Wire. Ole Miss may be without running back Kewan Lacy. DawgNation reported that he has no timeline to return after hurting his left shoulder again in the loss at Texas on Oct. 24.

What it means for Saturday

The stakes are lopsided. Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) has a one-game cushion, and a win would leave only Missouri at home and South Carolina on the road among its remaining conference games. Ole Miss (6-2, 4-2) already has two losses, and a third would badly damage its playoff chances.

Both teams come in playing well. Georgia recovered from its 27-24 home loss to Auburn by beating No. 17 Florida 27-8, and it has given up 17 or fewer points in six of eight games. Ole Miss beat Auburn 45-15 after losing 34-27 at Texas. The Rebels have outscored their four home opponents 149-51, a group that includes a 32-24 win over LSU and a 31-3 win over Missouri. Their trouble has come away from Oxford, where they lost 52-28 at Florida.

The prices match the predictor's narrow call. On this site's board for the game, which covers 11 venues, Georgia is favored at -163 on Novig, with Ole Miss at +160. Novig lists the Bulldogs at -3.5 at -102 on both sides of the spread. Novig also has the best Georgia spread price on the board, while the best number for Ole Miss is BetRivers' +4 at -114. The total is 56.5 on Novig, at -106 for the over and even money for the under. The traditional sportsbooks keep between 3.6% and 6.3% on the moneyline and between 4.3% and 7.0% on the spread and total, so the gaps between venues are small but real.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. A 3.5-point spread and an FPI split close to a coin flip both point to a close game in a stadium where Georgia has not won under Smart.