Tennessee projected for Liberty Bowl in Memphis after win at Arkansas

Tennessee is projected to finish its season in Memphis. After the Volunteers won 24-17 at Arkansas last weekend, USA TODAY's Erick Smith released updated bowl projections on Tuesday that send them to the Liberty Bowl against Cincinnati. Vols Wire reported the projection.

Vols Wire reports the Liberty Bowl is set for Jan. 2, 2027, at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC. That would make it a bowl trip inside the state for Tennessee, whose fans could drive across the state to see it.

The projection is a fair read of where the Vols stand. At 5-1 and ranked No. 14, they have handled most of their schedule. They opened with home wins over Furman (56-9) and Kennesaw State (42-9) and won 45-24 at Georgia Tech. Their only loss was a 20-17 decision at home against Texas. Since then they have beaten Auburn 24-14 in Knoxville and won on the road at Arkansas. None of those wins has come against a team the projections treat as a playoff contender, though, and that is why Tennessee is slotted into a non-playoff bowl in early January for now.

That can change quickly, because the hardest part of the schedule starts this week. No. 6 Alabama (5-1) visits Neyland Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. Vols Wire reports ABC will carry the game with Sean McDonough on play-by-play, Greg McElroy as analyst and Katie George on the sideline. After Alabama, Tennessee still hosts Kentucky and LSU and plays at South Carolina, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.

The market expects a tough afternoon for the home team. Alabama is favored at -317 on Novig, one of the venues listing the game, and theScore Bet has the Crimson Tide at -320. The spread has Tennessee getting 8.5 points, and the total is 51.5. Prices and matchup details are on our Alabama at Tennessee game page.

The stakes are simple. If Tennessee pulls off a home upset of a top-10 rival, it would have its best win of the season and could climb out of the middle of the bowl projections. A loss would drop the Vols to 5-2, with road trips to South Carolina and Texas A&M still to come, and the Liberty Bowl would look like a realistic place to land.

Arkansas, meanwhile, is trying to regroup after the loss to Tennessee left it at 2-4. The Razorbacks play at Vanderbilt (3-3) on Saturday at 7 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. Vanderbilt is favored at -212 on Novig and by 6.5 points, with a total of 50.5. DraftKings lists the Commodores at -225. Details are on the Arkansas at Vanderbilt game page.

Bowl projections in mid-October change from week to week. For Tennessee, Saturday's game against Alabama will probably do more than anything else to decide where the Vols end up.