The Southern Line
Tennessee vs Alabama: ABC has the Third Saturday in October at 3:30 p.m. from Neyland
No. 14 Tennessee hosts No. 6 Alabama at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Both teams are 5-1, and the Tide are favored by 7.5 points.
The Third Saturday in October is on national television this afternoon. No. 6 Alabama visits No. 14 Tennessee at Neyland Stadium, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy will call the game and Katie George will report from the sideline, according to Nick Gray of the Knoxville News Sentinel, whose story The Tennessean also ran. Viewers can stream it on the ESPN app or through Fubo.
Both teams come in at 5-1, so today's loser will have a second loss before Halloween. That would make November a lot tighter for whichever side drops this one. Alabama leads the all-time series 61-40-7, according to Tennessee Athletics, which lists quarterback Faizon Brandon (697 passing yards) and running back DeSean Bishop (678 rushing yards) as the Vols' leading passer and rusher.
Knox News reporter Emmett Siegel picked Alabama 27-20. He expects Tennessee's defense to keep the game close but questioned the passing game, writing: "Whether they can find enough offense is a different question."
What it means for Saturday
These two teams have already shared an opponent of sorts, and the results were nearly identical. Tennessee lost 20-17 at home to then-No. 1 Texas. Alabama lost 20-17 at home to then-No. 2 Georgia last week, its first loss of the season. Before that, the Tide had been running up scores: 56-23 at Mississippi State, 49-18 over South Carolina and 50-36 over Florida State.
The Vols have been winning closer games since the Texas loss. They beat Auburn 24-14 and won 24-17 at Arkansas, a team that is now 2-4. Their early scoring came mostly against Furman, Kennesaw State and Georgia Tech.
The season numbers show where the game will be decided. Alabama averages 44.2 points a game, and Tennessee allows 15.5, the stingiest mark of the two. Tennessee scores 34.7 a game, and Alabama gives up 20.7. As Bleacher Nation noted, Alabama has also outgained opponents by far more per game than Tennessee has. Whichever trend holds up will probably decide the game.
On this site's board, which tracks 12 venues, Alabama is favored by 7.5 points. Novig prices the Tide at -104 on that spread and at -300 to win outright, with Tennessee at +285. BetMGM had Alabama at -325 and the Vols at +260 as of Friday, according to the News Sentinel's story, so the venues are not far apart. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline ranges from 3.5% to 5.8%. On the Tennessee side, Novig has +7.5 at +102. Hard Rock Bet offers the extra point, +8.5, at -120.
The total is 50.5 at Novig, with the over at -108 and the under at +104. BetRivers lists the over at 50 for -122, and Pinnacle has the under at 51 for -109. That number is well below what either team has averaged on offense. The board expects a game closer to Alabama's loss to Georgia than to its earlier blowouts.
Tennessee's next game is at South Carolina on Oct. 24. Alabama's run of ranked opponents continues either way, and a win in Knoxville would put the Tide back in the SEC race one week after losing to Georgia.