The Southern Line
Florida likely to start sophomore QB Tramell Jones Jr. at No. 7 Texas with Philo hurt
Aaron Philo's shoulder injury makes him a game-time decision, and Florida is expected to give Tramell Jones Jr. his first start at No. 7 Texas.
Florida looks set to send sophomore Tramell Jones Jr. out for his first career start Saturday at No. 7 Texas. Starter Aaron Philo is a game-time decision with a shoulder injury, but sources told CBS Sports that Jones is the likely starter. On3 reported much the same and said Philo was limited in practice for most of the week while Jones worked with the first-team offense.
Philo got hurt in last week's 38-19 home loss to South Carolina. He had started every game in Jon Sumrall's first season after following offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner from Georgia Tech, and he won the job in preseason camp after Jones pushed him through the spring. Jones came on in relief against the Gamecocks and didn't do much: 6 of 8 for 40 yards and an interception.
His season totals look better. SB Nation reports he has completed 23 of 29 passes for 252 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. That includes five completions on five throws in mop-up duty at Missouri, where he pushed the ball downfield. Sumrall has backed him in public. "I think Tramell can be our starting quarterback here, and we can win football games," the coach told 247Sports.
The setting makes this a hard first start. CBS Sports ranks the Texas defense 12th nationally in yards allowed (264.4 per game) and sixth in EPA per play. Edge rusher Colin Simmons leads the country with 9.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss. Texas sacked Tennessee's freshman quarterback 10 times in Knoxville. Florida running back Jadan Baugh could take some pressure off Jones, but he has been held in check in each of the last two games.
What it means for Saturday
Florida (4-2) has fallen off sharply in two weeks. Back-to-back wins over Auburn and then-No. 4 Ole Miss were followed by a 45-17 loss at Missouri and the South Carolina defeat, and the Gators gave up 83 points across those two losses. Texas (4-1) is coming off a 27-24 home loss to Oklahoma. Most of its games have been close: it beat Ohio State by one point and Tennessee by three, and it has scored 30 points or fewer in every game except the opener against Texas State.
The board for Florida at Texas shows the Longhorns favored across 11 venues. Novig has Texas at -388 on the moneyline, the same as the best price anywhere (Polymarket, -388), and Florida at +376. On the spread, Novig lists Texas -11.5 at -100. BetMGM offers the best Texas number at -11 (-110), and BetRivers has Florida at +12 (-114). The spread is within half a point at every venue, so the market agrees on the size of the gap. Novig's total is 51.5, and sportsbook hold runs from 4.2% to 6.1% on the moneyline.
If Philo can't play, the main thing to watch is whether Florida's offensive line can protect a first-time starter against Simmons. The Texas offense has rarely pulled away from opponents this season, which may help keep the game within reach.