The Southern Line
Texas loses two straight by three points and faces Ole Miss with its playoff hopes in doubt
Back-to-back 27-24 losses to Oklahoma and Florida leave Texas at 4-2 and under pressure going into a home game against No. 9 Ole Miss.
Three weeks ago Texas was ranked No. 1. Now it has lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and then 27-24 to Florida, and the questions about Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning are getting louder. Yahoo Sports made the Longhorns the most miserable fan base of Week 7 in its Misery Index. The column argued the slide is not bad luck or a hangover from a tough schedule. It fits a pattern that has followed Sarkisian through his 13 years as a head coach: talented teams that play below the sum of their parts.
The Florida loss was the hardest to explain. Texas led 17-3 at home and then gave up 24 straight points to an unranked team. Yahoo noted that Texas is the only power-conference team that has failed to score 30 against a Gators pass defense ranked 131st. Its case against Sarkisian is narrow. He is 39-10 over the last three and a half seasons and has made the playoff twice. But he calls the plays, and for a coach known for offense, scoring has stayed harder than it should be, whether Quinn Ewers or Manning is at quarterback. The column said that if Texas misses the playoff again, it will have "zero room to complain."
The pressure has reached the quarterback spot. The Houston Chronicle raised benching Manning as an option after a loss that ended with his late fumble, a week after two late interceptions decided the Oklahoma game. The defense may also be short-handed. Edge rusher Colin Simmons suffered a lower-leg injury in the second half against Florida and was helped off the field, Sarkisian said, according to Burnt Orange Nation. No timeline has been reported.
What it means for Ole Miss
Things get harder from here. Texas is 4-2 and hosts No. 9 Ole Miss on Saturday, October 24, at 6:30 p.m. Central on ABC, per Sports Illustrated. The start of the season still counts for something. Texas beat then-No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 and won 20-17 at No. 14 Tennessee. But all of its last four games were decided by three points or fewer, and it has lost the last two of them. A third straight loss would leave Texas with very little margin in the playoff race.
The market still has more faith in the Longhorns than their recent results do. On this site's board, which tracks six venues, Texas is favored by 3. DraftKings has the best spread price on the Longhorns at -3 (-105), and FanDuel has Ole Miss at +3.5 (-110). On the moneyline, Novig has Texas at -147, and the best price anywhere is DraftKings at -142. Novig lists Ole Miss at +127, while FanDuel has the best Rebels price at +136. That gap of 9 cents on the underdog side is the widest split between venues in this game. The total is 53.5 at FanDuel, and sportsbook hold runs from about 4.1% to 4.8% across the markets.
If Simmons cannot play, Texas loses its best pass rusher right before a ranked opponent comes to Austin. Either way, the offense has to show it can protect a lead.
